Tier 5 lockdown: Covid app highlights areas that could move up to Tier 5 this week

Matt Hancock: Parts of south to enter Tier 4 on Boxing Day

Tier 5 lockdown restrictions may affect millions in the coming week as new variants of coronavirus continue to cause cases of the virus to spike. These new cases of the virus are placing additional stress and strain on the overburdened NHS, particularly hospitals. Express.co.uk has analysed which areas of England are most likely to be Tier 5 according to the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app.

Hospitals across England are struggling to manage due to an influx of people with coronavirus according to experts.

One ambulance service has reported that Boxing Day was one of its busiest ever days.

The number of hospital admissions is nearing levels seen during the first peak of the virus in April.

Experts claim this could further worsen in the next two months.

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Government scientists warned the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson stricter measures may be required to stop the virus spiralling out of control.

Today (December 28), the UK recorded its highest daily increase in coronavirus cases since the pandemic began with 41,385 positive tests.

A senior Whitehall source warned England could see tighter restrictions in the coming days as cases continue to soar.

The source added new measures could mean “adding another level onto Tier 4, so like a Tier 5.”

They said: “We are ruling nothing out, the new strain is of serious concern. Tier 4 appears to not be strong enough.”

A new coronavirus dashboard compiled by ZOE Covid Study reveals risk levels for areas across England.

The app shows whether each area is at risk of moving tiers next week when the next review takes place.

The data compiled by the researchers behind the ZOE Covid Symptom Study provides details for the prevalence of coronavirus in each area of England.

Tiers are decided upon based on:

  • The total number of Covid cases in an area
  • The number of cases in the over-60s
  • The rate at which cases are rising or falling
  • The proportion of test results coming back positive
  • The pressure on the NHS.

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According to the data, including data up to December 28, the following areas suggest the rate of infections is on the rise including:

  • Greater Manchester – Currently Tier 3
  • Lancashire, Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen – Currently Tier 3
  • York and North Yorkshire – Currently Tier 2
  • The Humber – Currently Tier 3
  • Derby and Derbyshire – Currently Tier 3
  • Northamptonshire – Currently Tier 2
  • Leicester and Leicestershire – Currently Tier 3
  • Birmingham and Black Country – Currently Tier 3
  • Herefordshire – Currently Tier 1
  • Worcestershire – Currently Tier 2
  • London – Currently Tier 4
  • Essex, Thurrock and Southend-on-Sea – Currently Tier 2/4
  • Hertfordshire – Currently Tier 4
  • Bedfordshire and Milton Keynes – Currently Tier 4
  • Cambridgeshire and Peterborough – Currently Tier 2/4
  • Norfolk – Currently Tier 2
  • Suffolk – Currently Tier 2
  • Kent and Medway – Currently Tier 4
  • Buckinghamshire – Currently Tier 4
  • East and West Sussex, and Brighton and Hove – Currently Tier 2/4
  • Surrey – Currently Tier 2
  • Hampshire, Portsmouth and Southampton – Currently Tier 2/4
  • Oxfordshire – Currently Tier 2
  • Somerset and Bath and North East Somerset – Currently Tier 2
  • Cornwall and Isles of Scilly – Currently Tier 1

The following Tier 4 areas show an increase in current prevalence rates of the virus over the past seven days to December 28 and therefore are potentially at risk of being moved into Tier 5 if the Whitehall source’s claims prove correct:

  • London – prevalence rate of 814.2 per 100,000 population
  • Essex, Thurrock and Southend-on-Sea – prevalence rate of 1,095 per 100,000 population
  • Hertfordshire – prevalence rate of 740 per 100,000 population
  • Bedfordshire and Milton Keynes – prevalence rate of 694 per 100,000 population
  • Cambridgeshire and Peterborough – prevalence rate of 508 per 100,000 population
  • Kent and Medway – prevalence rate of 1,081 per 100,000 population
  • Buckinghamshire – prevalence rate of 717 per 100,000 population
  • East and West Sussex, and Brighton and Hove – prevalence rate of 605 per 100,000 population
  • Hampshire, Portsmouth and Southampton – prevalence rate of 422 per 100,000 population.

The following areas are in Tiers 1 to 3 currently and have shown an increase in the prevalence of the virus in the past week:

  • Greater Manchester – currently Tier 3 – prevalence rate of 516 per 100,000 population
  • Lancashire, Blackpool and Blackburn with Darwen – currently Tier 3 – prevalence rate of 450 per 100,000 population
  • York and North Yorkshire – currently Tier 2 – prevalence rate of 305 per 100,000 population
  • The Humber – currently Tier 3 – prevalence rate of 290 per 100,000 population
  • Derby and Derbyshire – currently Tier 3 – prevalence rate of 500 per 100,000 population
  • Northamptonshire – currently Tier w – prevalence rate of 500 per 100,000 population
  • Leicester and Leicestershire – currently Tier 3 – prevalence rate of 390 per 100,000 population
  • Birmingham and Black Country – currently Tier 3 – prevalence rate of 689 per 100,000 population
  • Herefordshire – currently Tier 1 – prevalence rate of 244 per 100,000 population
  • Worcestershire – currently Tier 2 – prevalence rate of 217 per 100,000 population
  • Norfolk – currently Tier 2 – prevalence rate of 392 per 100,000 population
  • Suffolk – currently Tier 2 – prevalence rate of 361 per 100,000 population
  • Oxfordshire – currently Tier 2 – prevalence rate of 329 per 100,000 population
  • Somerset and Bath and North East Somerset – currently Tier 2 – prevalence rate of 304 per 100,000 population
  • Cornwall and Isle of Scilly – currently Tier 1 – prevalence rate of 173 per 100,000 population.

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