What's driving Putin's Ukraine brinkmanship?

MOSCOW (NYTIMES) – As the Kremlin masses troops near Ukraine, it is signalling one core conviction: Russia cares more about the fate of its south-western neighbour than the West ever will.

In speeches, interviews and lengthy articles, President Vladimir Putin and his close associates have telegraphed a singular fixation this year on the former Soviet republic.

The Kremlin thesis goes that Ukrainians are “one people” with Russians, living in a failing state controlled by Western forces determined to divide and conquer the post-Soviet world.

Ukrainians, who ousted a Russia-friendly president in 2014 and are increasingly in favour of binding their country to Western institutions, would largely beg to differ.

But Mr Putin’s conviction finds a receptive ear among many Russians, who see themselves as linked intimately with Ukraine by generations of linguistic, cultural, economic, political and family ties.

Now, with a force of 175,000 Russian troops poised to be in position near Ukraine by early next year, in what Western officials fear could be a prelude to an invasion, centuries of shared history loom large.

Mr Putin’s gambit may be a cold calculus of coercion, backed by signals that the threat of war is real – a way to force President Joe Biden to recognise a Russian sphere of interest in Eastern Europe.

Mr Putin in recent days said Russia would demand “legal guarantees” that Ukraine would not join the Nato alliance or host more Western forces, and he is scheduled to speak to Mr Biden by video-conference Tuesday (Dec 7).

But to Mr Putin – and many other Russians – the nearly 8-year-old conflict with Ukraine is not simply about geopolitics; it is about a hurt national psyche, a historical injustice to be set right.

One of his former advisers, Mr Gleb Pavlovsky, in an interview described the Kremlin’s view of Ukraine as a “trauma wrapped in a trauma” – the dissolution of the Soviet Union coupled with the separation of a nation Russians long viewed as simply an extension of their own.

To many Ukrainians, Mr Putin’s appeal to a shared history is little but a hollow attempt to appropriate the country’s own heritage and justify territorial ambitions.

“They stole our past,” said Ms Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the New Europe Centre, a pro-Western think tank in Kiev. “Now they’re trying to steal our future.”

After Ukraine’s pro-Western revolution in 2014, Russia invaded and then annexed the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and fomented a still-running separatist war in the country’s east.

Mr Putin has sought ever since to prevent Ukraine’s drift toward the West – and has voiced growing anger that the United States is training with and helping arm Ukrainian soldiers.

The use of military force to bring Ukraine back into the Russian fold would harm Mr Putin’s domestic standing, polls suggest – one reason Russian analysts are skeptical that Mr Putin would pull the trigger on an invasion likely to carry a terrifying price in Ukrainian and Russian lives.

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But Mr Putin’s conviction that Russians and Ukrainians are unjustly and artificially divided is widely shared in his country, even by Putin’s opponents.

While other conflicts in the post-Soviet world have pitted one ethnic group against another, the one between Russia and Ukraine is more complicated. Ukrainian is Ukraine’s official language, but Russian – which is closely related – is still widely spoken.

Russians often view Kiev, now the Ukrainian capital and once the centre of the medieval Kyivan Rus, as the birthplace of their nation. Well-known Russian-language writers, such as Nikolai Gogol and Mikhail Bulgakov, came from Ukraine, as did Communist revolutionary Leon Trotsky and Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev.

Ukraine’s president, Mr Volodymyr Zelenskyy, now speaks Ukrainian in public but first gained fame as a Russian-language comedian who performed across the former Soviet Union.

Millions of Russians and Ukrainians have family members in one another’s countries, in part a product of migration during the Soviet era, when Ukraine was an industrial powerhouse.

For instance, Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader imprisoned earlier this year, spent childhood summers in Ukraine, the birthplace of his father. While he is a critic of Mr Putin’s aggressive foreign policy, Navalny in 2014 said he disagreed with Ukrainians “to whom it is a matter of principle to prove that we are different peoples.”

“I don’t see any difference between Russians and Ukrainians, none at all,” he said in a radio interview then.

Emotions aside, the idea of a Western-allied Ukraine as a security threat to Russia is widely shared in Russian foreign policy circles.

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Mr Ivan Timofeev, programme director at the government-funded Russian International Affairs Council, said that Nato troops in Ukraine would drastically alter the military balance, even though the alliance already borders Russia in the Baltic region and the Arctic.

“If it’s also Ukraine, then the potential theatre of military action becomes very large,” Mr Timofeev said of Nato expansion. “The longer the front line, the less clear it will be where the attack will come from.”

In an article last month for the Valdai Club, a foreign policy forum with close ties to the Russian government, Mr Timofeev said that a full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine was highly unlikely, in part because it could stir domestic discontent.

Even if Ukraine will always be a higher priority for Russia than for the United States, he cautions, Western sanctions and military assistance would make a Russian invasion enormously costly.

Rather than auguring a wider war, he said, Russia’s military buildup is meant as a signal to the West of Russia’s extreme discontent with its expanding influence in Ukraine.

“If reuniting with Crimea was met with enthusiasm by the Russian public for many reasons, a great war is unlikely to find such support,” Mr Timofeev wrote.

Domestically, the annexation of Crimea, a glittering Black Sea peninsula, shot Mr Putin’s approval ratings to near 90 per cent in 2014.

This year, the Kremlin has escalated its attacks on Ukraine’s pro-Western leadership by appealing to Ukraine’s place in Russian identity; Mr Putin opened a July article about why Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” by describing their current divisions as “a great common calamity.”

The messaging is having an impact. The share of Russians who say they have a negative view of Ukraine rose to 49 per cent in August from 31 per cent in February, according to polls this year by the independent Levada Centre in Moscow.

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In fact, it was Mr Putin’s policies that turned Ukrainians against Russia in large numbers, Ms Getmanchuk, the think tank director in Kiev, said.

Support for joining Nato among Ukrainians rose to 54 per cent this year, compared with 14 per cent in 2012, according to the Razumkov Centre, a research institution in Kiev.

“Unintentionally, of course, he contributed to developing Ukraine as a nation,” she said.

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