Brexit: Bruno Bonnell says he can see ‘no success’ in UK economy
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GDP data being released tomorrow is expected to show the UK economy grew more slowly than eurozone in the third quarter of this year. But economist Julian Jessop, a “Brexit optimist”, believes “the prospects for the UK are brightening”.
Mr Jessop said it is the EU countries, particularly Germany and France, that have the most to worry about in the run-up to Christmas.
GDP rose by 2.2 percent in the third quarter in the eurozone, where figures have already been released.
The EU saw a slightly lower growth of 2.1 percent.
But economists expect the UK’s GDP growth to come in lower still, at around 1.6 percent.
This isn’t a result of economic stagnation but an inevitability following a strong performance in the second quarter, said Mr Jessop.
He said: “The easing of lockdown restrictions, following the relatively quick rollout of the Covid vaccines, had boosted UK GDP by 5.5 percent in the second quarter.
“This far outpaced the EU’s growth of 2 percent.”
Mr Jessop suggested comparing composite output indexes (COI), which cover services and manufacturing, for a better idea of success or failure.
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In October, the UK’s COI rose to a three-month high.
Meanwhile in the eurozone, the equivalent index fell to a six-month low.
In light of this, and other surveys, Mr Jessop predicted that “by the end of this year, the UK economy will have recovered further compared to its pre-Covid level than the eurozone”.
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Writing in the Telegraph, he said: “And yes, that is ‘despite Brexit’.”
This is not the first offering of an optimistic outlook for Britain’s economy in recent months.
A survey of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in the UK in October showed confidence is high that London will remain Europe’s financial capital over the next decade.
Some 80 percent of the more than 1,000 respondents said they feel confident about the future of Britain’s economy, while an impressive 33 percent feel “very confident”.
This comes after public debt increased to around 95.5 percent of GDP due to the Government’s response to Covid.
Debt had not reached such a high level since the 1960s when the economy started recovering from the impact of World War 2.
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