UK election predictor: Boris takes a battering – could the Tories LOSE next election?

Amber Rudd warns that MPs might ‘move against’ Boris Johnson

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The true extent of the public’s fury toward the Prime Minister is becoming more and more apparent, as Mr Johnson has watched his support plummet following an attempting rip up of parliamentary standards rules. A Savanta ComRes poll published today shows Labour taking a shocking a six-point lead over the Conservatives.

The survey found 40 percent of those interviewed would vote Labour if an election was held today, in comparison to 40 percent who would vote for the Tories.

Chris Hopkins of Savanta ComRes said: “These latest poll numbers are obviously striking, and while recent polls have begun to show slim Labour leads, none have been quite as comprehensive as this one”.

The survey reveals the extent of public anger toward the Prime Minister for his botched attempt to save Mr Paterson from suspension.

The pain for the PM doesn’t stop there, however. YouGov polling published yesterday also suggests the Tories have lost their lead, with the poll putting Mr Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party neck and neck on 35 percent of the vote share.

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Another poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies found 38 percent of respondents said they would vote Labour if there was an election, with 36 percent saying they would vote Conservative.

The latest Westminster tracker shows the two leading parties are pitted against each other on 35 percent, with the Conservatives having dropped from 41 percent on October 13, and Labour has risen from 31 percent.

To make matters worse, the Prime Minister’s personal approval rating has dropped to an all-time low.

When asked ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s record to date?’, only 25 percent of respondents said they approved of Mr Johnson’s top team in the most recent YouGov survey.

The data shows 54 percent said they disapproved of the Government’s record.

Other recent research by Smarkets has suggested there is a one-in-three chance of Mr Johnson being replaced as leader of the Conservatives before the next General Election, which is due to take place in 2024.

The Chancellor Rishi Sunak has consistently been the favourite to replace Mr Johnson – but it doesn’t currently appear that the Prime Minister has any plans of stepping down.

In the face of dire polling, Mr Johnson is adamant that the political challenge faced by his party will not affect them – even in the wake of two upcoming by-elections, one of which was triggered by Mr Paterson’s resignation.

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Asked whether he feared public concern over standards would lose the Conservatives the Sidcup by-election, Mr Johnson said: “No, because Louie French is running a great campaign on the big issues that matter to people.

“(He is) building on the legacy of James Brokenshire, ensuring that Queen Mary Hospital has ever better faculties and making sure that we have ever safer streets in Greater London.”

But Lord Evans, chairman of the committee on Standards in Public Life, argued that the public does care about issues such as standards.

He said: “Standards matter for our democracy, they matter for our economic prosperity, and for our international influence and our foreign policy.

“The past week has shown that standards do matter to the public.

“Ethical standards are important for making democracy work. The public does care about this.”

The row began last week when Boris Johnson whipped Conservative MPs into voting for an amendment on delaying a decision to suspend Mr Paterson over his breach of lobbying rules.

The fiasco has dominated newspaper headlines and expanded into a wider discussion about MPs conducted not seen since the expenses scandal in 2009, which was a contributory factor in bringing down Gordon Brown’s Labour Government.

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