German election exit polls IN FULL: Read full results as Angela Merkel prepares to retire

Germany election: Juncker reflects on Merkel’s time in office

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Voting in the German election has now concluded the citizens have had their say about which parties and leaders they want governing the country in the coming years. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to retire after almost 16 years in the role and will be soon be replaced. The latest polls pitch SPD candidate Olaf Scholz as the most likely winner, but the gap between his party and the CDU/CSU has shortened in recent days. So according to the exit poll, who won the race? 

Chancellor Angela Merkel is retiring after 16 years leading Germany.

Her likely successor is uncertain with the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens all leading in the polls at various points over the past few months. 

The latest polls suggest the race is extremely close – with just a few percentage points between the lead candidates.

Ms Merkel is likely to be around for a while in the wake of the election in a caretaker capacity as polls indicate the most likely outcome to require two or three parties to reach a deal on a coalition to have a majority in parliament. 

Germany’s exit polling for public broadcaster ARD signalled a clear outcome for the election could take hours.

The exit poll results are as follows:

  • CDU/CSU: 25 percent
  • SPD: 25 percent
  • The Greens: 15 percent
  • Free Democratic Party (FDP): 11 percent 
  • Alternative for Germany (AfD): 11 percent
  • Die Linke: Five percent
  • Others: Eight percent.

Based on these numbers, traffic light and Jamaica coalitions would be possible. 

However, red-green-red coalition is not possible.

The crucial barrier will be if the Left party surpasses the five percent hurdle for making it into Government.

If the party falls below this barrier, a Left-leaning SPD, Greens and Die Linke coalition will not be possible.

The Left party would then drop out of the Bundestag.

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Germany’s second public broadcaster indicates the SPD will walk away with a higher result.

The vote shares from broadcast ZDF are as follows: 

  • SPD 26 percent
  • CDU/CSU: 24 percent
  • Green: 14.5 percent
  • FDP: 12 percent
  • AfD: 10 percent
  • Left: 5 percent
  • Others: 8.5 percent

How accurate are exit polls?

In 2017, the exit poll placed the CDU/CSU result at 33.5 percent.

The party alliance in fact walked away with 32.9 percent of the vote share once the votes had been counted.

The SPD by comparison was projected to win 21 percent of the vote and in fact achieved 20.5 percent of the vote share.

All of which makes for a lot of tension for the German candidates in the coming hours.

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