BBC Weather: UK warned of unsettled rain and strong winds
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The first widespread dusting of snow is set to arrive in Britain in under a fortnight – at the start of December. Maps show on Tuesday, December 7 parts of Wales, Scotland and northern England may get a covering with finer details such as how long it will last still under wraps. Many forecasters predict snow showers with caution, especially more than a few days away, due to a change in weather pattern which could render their prediction inaccurate. Just last week the Met Office alluded to snowfall in its long-range forecast for December, but has quickly amended it in the days that followed, signalling a possible lack of confidence in that particular element of the forecast.
Met Office spokesman Oliver Clayton told Express.co.uk it could not go into any detail regarding the snow maps for December 7 due to how far away it is. But British Weather Services’ Jim Dale has spoken about the developing weather model pointing towards wintry showers.
Speaking to Express.co.uk today, he said: “It can’t be concrete this far out but it appears to be a pattern change – continental air, colder, drier and yes possibly some snow but the details and specifics are far away from being confirmed.”
In terms of temperature dips in the run up to this weather event, Mr Dale said they will almost yo-yo for much of the country due to more rain and unsettled weather coming first. He added: “Not in a straight line – still plenty of changeable Atlantic air bringing rain at intervals, so up and down temperatures of seasonal average values.”
If December 7’s snowfall does come off – much of the snow will actually fall in the morning, according to WX Charts, which shows most of it will have come down by about midday.
Again, due to the length of time between now and December 7, maps cannot offer any clarity on whether the snow will remain into December 8 or if there will be more wintry showers to come.
The Met Office’s long range forecast for December 1 to 20 adds: “In early December, the development of more prolonged settled periods is favoured, bringing increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog in parts. Mild or very mild start to the period, although temperatures trending down with time.
“Confidence remains low for this period, although not unusually so. Conditions are expected to be more settled than of late, with the potential for higher pressure to develop.
“This is likely to bring drier and colder weather, with overnight frost and fog possible, especially in the north, while the south is more likely to remain under changeable conditions. Temperature likely to trend below average at times.”
NetWeather’s long range forecast for this date, from December 5 to December 11 goes only as far as mentioning “widespread frost and fog” during this time period.
Written by forecaster Ian Simpson, it says: “Confidence is relatively low for this week, but it looks probable that high pressure will be close to Britain for much of the week. Early in the week, highest pressure will still be over Scandinavia, but later in the week there is an increasing chance of high pressure becoming centred over and to the south-west of Britain, resulting in generally westerly winds developing in the north.
“Frost and fog are likely to be widespread at times, particularly early in the week and in the south of Britain, leading to considerable potential for anticyclonic gloom to be a significant feature of the week.
“In the north it is likely to be milder, particularly later in the week, with westerly winds bringing some warm air masses around the northern flank of the high pressure.
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“Eastern Scotland, to the lee of high ground, may become rather sunny, while western Scotland, north-west England and Northern Ireland will probably see a lot of cloud in this setup.”
Looking ahead to later on in December, NetWeather’s predictions are more centred on dry weather as opposed to anything snowy. It adds: “Short-lived snowfalls are possible if Atlantic frontal systems end up moving into cold continental air, but it doesn’t look likely to be snowy overall, with the emphasis being on dry weather.”
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